Who’s gonna win?

Oscar nominations are out. Who’s gonna win? Here are my picks: Bold for who I think will win, italics for who I think should win.

Best picture:

Avatar

– The Blind Side

– District 9

– An Education

– The Hurt Locker

– Inglorious Basterds

– Precious

– A Serious Man

Up

– Up in the Air

Avatar will win, which is not a travesty. That film was beautifully made and amazing to watch, even if the story and dialogue weren’t the best of the year. I loved Up, and would love to see an animated film win Best Picture for the first time (hat tip to RB for first suggesting this). Up in the Air was a critical darling this year, and I can’t for the life of me figure out why.

Best Actress:

– Sandy Bullock, The Blind Side

– Helen Mirren, The Last Station

– Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

– Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

This is a great list, and I wouldn’t be sad to see any of these women win. Okay, Sandra Bullock is Sandra Bullock, but I have to admit, I have a soft spot for her and am glad she’s gettin’ some props.

Best Actor:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

– George Clooney, Up in the Air

– Colin Firth, A Single Man

– Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges will win, and that’s fair enough. He’s an amazing actor and sinks so completely into his roles, people always seem to think he’s playing himself. But Jeremy Renner was truly amazing in The Hurt Locker, in a role that was more complex than it seems at first glance.

Best Supporting Actress

– Penelope Cruz, Nine

– Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

– Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

– Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo’Nique, Precious

I haven’t seen Precious yet, but there’s so much buzz about Mo’Nique’s performance, and so much consensus that the film is raw and real, that I’m going to assume she deserves it. Also, of the three other performances I saw in this list, none of them are Oscar-worthy.

Best Supporting Actor:

– Matt Damon, Invictus

– Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

– Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

– Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

– Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Sadly, I haven’t seen any of these films. But everyone raves about Christoph Waltz’s performances, so I’m assuming he’ll win. I was really torn about seeing Basterds, but maybe I should have. Meanwhile, Woody H. is a weirdo, but the guy can act. I’m glad to see him get a nomination.

Best Director:

I could list all these, but I won’t bother. James Cameron will win, and he deserves to. He put a product on the screen that was like no other movie. No, I don’t want to see great stories fall by the wayside in favor of special effects. But I don’t think Avatar marks the death of storytelling — it’s just a leap forward in visiual artistry that deserves recognition. I think Cameron’s an egotist and an ass, but he’s also a visionary. And there’s nothing wrong with rewarding that.

16 responses to “Who’s gonna win?”

  1. LP says:

    OK, I posted late today, but what? No one has any opinion about movies?

    Love,
    tired every-Tuesday poster

    PS: anyone want to share Tuesday responsibilities with me? Every other week?

  2. Ivy says:

    Hi Lisa, i was interested in your opinion re Up. I haven’t seen it yet as I am craptacular about seeing films (have to be dragged, whining and complaining all the way, generally), but I adore animation so I will make sure I see it sometime. I would be happy to share Tuesday with you, but doubt that anyone would be interested in weekly mutterings from the south of the south. or the north of the south of the south, depending on how you look at it. What to say?
    As for a late post, well, it is relatively bright and early Wednesday here…
    in the local vernacular: kia kaha, bro.

  3. Tim says:

    Oscar time always makes me feel like that movie reviewer that Bill Murray used to play on SNL. He’d come on and admit that he hadn’t seen any of the movies except for whatever Woody Allen had done that year.

    I’ve seen only 3 of these movies, all thanks to you and RB! If I do see any more, it will also most likely be thanks to you and RB. Uh, I *did* finally see Fassbinder’s Lola and The Third Generation. They both should have won!

  4. lane says:

    movies suck . . .

    except inglorious basterds. that didn’t suck.

    i’m sure it was WAY BETTER THAN FUCKIN” AVATAR!!!!!!!

  5. swells says:

    It’s too embarrassing, that’s why! The only thing I’ve even seen is “A Serious Man,” which I didn’t even know anyone else even saw! Here’s my review: It’s good. Anyway, I loved, loved, loved “A Single Man.” But I think that might be 2010. See why I might as well not even comment on this post?

    But thanks, LP–and when on EARTH did you see all these random movies???

  6. trixie says:

    did anyone see District 9?
    I did, and actually ended up walking out of it due to an odd combination of being annoyed and bored.
    F hasn’t seen it. I have reluctantly agreed to rent it and give it a second try.

    I think it’s absurd that The Blind Side got an Oscar nod (two if you count Sandy’s). that movie should have aired on Lifetime. I haven’t seen it however, so maybe I am wrong.

    Avatar is going to sweep, obviously, but I was truly impressed by two other movies this year (I thought Avatar was great): The Hurt Locker and Precious. I hope Mo’Nique gets that best supporting actress win. That performance is devastating.

  7. trixie says:

    and I plan to see the Lovely Bones (love me some Stanley Tucci, loved him opposite Merryl in J&J) even though it’s probably going to suck.

  8. trixie says:

    however I categorically refuse to see 9.

  9. trixie says:

    I mean Nine.

  10. ScottyGee says:

    6: District 9 SUCKED! And the goddamn S. African pronunciation of prawn drove me insane!

    I loved Inglorious Basterds, but I can’t believe it got a nomination.

    I really liked Up, but my favorite on the list is A Serious Man. I haven’t seen any of the others…

    I’ve been extremely surprised that so many people whose opinions I respect have loved Avitar. I haven’t seen it yes, but I guess I must.

    And I hope that Firth gets the win. He was so super great in A Single Man.

  11. trixie says:

    he was, but too many parts of that movie reminded me of a Calvin Klein commercial for cologne or something.

  12. Andrew says:

    I’ve seen nine out of the ten movies nominated for best picture. I clearly have no life.

    This being America, I’m afraid Avatar is going to win. When a film wins a bajillion dollars (actual figure), we like to reward it with a gold statuette, even if it is not the best film out there. I don’t really understand why. It’s not like we’re using the award to boost awareness of the film because clearly, everyone and their grandmother saw Avatar. So why reward it further? Why not reward a superior film that far fewer people saw like The Hurt Locker? Or A Single Man? People keep saying that Avatar is “unlike anything you’ve ever seen in a movie.” This is true. But there’s more to a movie than what you see. Give it the technical awards, the special effects awards. I don’t think anyone’s going to disagree that Avatar had better special effects than A Single Man.

    I apologize. Unlike most of America, I put my grumpy pants both legs at once.

  13. LP says:

    2: I loved Up, partly because it was unlike usual animated fare. The beginning has one of the sweetest, most wrenching evocations of love and loss I’ve seen in any film. And then it takes off from there. Also: kia kaha, bro to you to too. Ya.

    3: Fassbinder was indirectly responsible for a terrible breakup in college for me, though in retrospect it was the best thing. So, my feelings about him are mixed.

    4: Lane, this sounds like film criticism as practiced by an angry 8th-grader. Come on, dude! Give Avatar the love!

    5: RB gets screeners because she votes on WGA awards. So we have all the contendahs at home, in DVD form. Makes it easy to see everything!

    6-9: What is the deal with Nine? It sank without a trace, and I still can’t figure out what it is, beyond a weird blend of Chicago and, um, Ishtar?

    10-11: Agreed on both counts re: Single Man. Colin Firth gave a devastating performance. But the movie, as good as it was, did feel like a Vanity Fair cover come to life.

  14. Rachel Berkowitz says:

    What more do you expect from Tom Ford, the man who gave us this?

  15. trixie says:

    also, why were there so many movies referencing the number 9 this year? really? three movies with 9?
    i thought that was weird.

    and rach, thanks for that link. i forgot about that cover. i love that TF has KK’s earlobe in his teeth.
    and your post today, which was awesome, as usual. i love the new album too.

  16. lane says:

    ok angry 8th grader, fair enough.

    i was visiting at an art school earlier this week and some of the students were trying to convince me to see Avatar just for the spectacle of it.

    although i love terminator 2, and respect titanic (just for madness of it) avatar, to me, is just so unappealing. i have no interest in. i’m not sure why, i liked the lord of the rings movies, basically. i just really have no desire to see avatar.