I worry that you-all don’t have enough to worry about. I worry that I worry too much. So here are some of my worries, on the theory that if I cast my worries onto the digital waters of the Internet, cyber-seagulls will eat them up and regurgitate them into the mouths of their young, or something like that:
1. Global warming. This used to seem likely but not inevitable. Then it started looking inevitable, but maybe not that bad. How much could the climate change, anyway? How high could sea levels rise? A couple of feet? I can move upstate. And anyway, won’t we all be dead by the time the climate changes very much at all? But now we find out that glaciers in Antarctica are melting at an alarming rate and have the potential to slide into the sea, raising sea levels by several meters. Worry-meter: Cold sweat.
2. A recession — or worse. Another economic bubble is bursting and investors all over the world are freaked out. What makes this recession scarier than the last one? For one thing, it seems that no one actually knows how deeply the financial system is invested in the souring mortgage market, so no one can say what damage the housing downturn will cause. Add high-and-rising oil prices and the concomitant increase in consumer prices, high budget and balance-of-payments deficits in the U.S., a war in Iraq that’s costing us $2 billion per week (money that could be spent on other things that would, you know, help the economy or help people without health insurance, etc.), and one of the most corrupt, pro-corporate, and incompetent administrations in history, and it looks like this recession could be deep and painful indeed. Worry-meter: Your stomach might drop as fast as the Dow.
3. A war with Iran. Is it just me, or is the Bush administration acting a little less crazy about this one these days? It seems that Defense Secretary Robert Gates has convinced Bush that it might be a bad idea to start another war when the U.S. isn’t exactly winning the two wars it’s already fighting. On the other hand, there was that wacky trumped-up speedboat thing in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago. Some hopeful neocons, including Rudy Giuliani advisor Norman Podhoretz, continue to believe that Bush will bomb Iran before he leaves office. And then there’s the old song: “Whatever Cheney wants, Cheney gets.” Worry-meter: Potentially explosive, but not that likely.
4. Another Republican president. Ha! With Bush’s approval ratings in the toilet, an electorate that obviously wants a change of pace, and a Republican-branded recession on the way, how could the Democrats possibly lose? Well, if you have to ask, you haven’t been paying attention to the Democratic Party for the past decade or two, have you? Democrats running for President are like Charlie Brown kicking the football. And besides all the too-easily-imagined losing scenarios involving feckless, inept Democratic campaigning, consider that the security of the vote has been profoundly compromised by electronic voting machines. Worry-meter: I’d step up my networking with Canadian colleagues if I were you.
Jesus, Dave. I was just about to go enjoy the day. Sigh.
I worry about chemicals in my food.
Also, I just picked up my morning paper — and lookie here. I’m sure you wrote your post before this headline was written, but bam. You could have used that photo to illustrate your post.
And the South Carolina primary.
It’s predicted the Rep. Nom. since 1980, so they’ll run McCain.
And between Obama and Clinton, McCain will beat either one.
Where IS John Edwards?!?!
Lane I totally agre with you.
On the economic front, this is a holy-shit! move by the Fed.
Dave (or, um, any readers who are economists by trade), any chance those Fed rate cuts could help the little guy before the shit hits the fan?
I don’t understand much about money, but does Bush really want to send people another check in the mail? One that we’re not supposed to use to pay down debt, but to stimulate the economy? WTF?
Or if you’d like to bury your head in the sand, discuss the Oscar nominations. Any big surprises? Who got snubbed? I liked Juno, but can’t believe it got a Best Picture nod.
Yeah. It’s a crime that Juno and Atonement beat out Diving Bell and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead for a best picture nomination. And it’s a double crime that PSH only got a supporting nod for Charlie Wilson when his performance in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead was one of the best of his career.
Juno! Please! The rest of the movie was enjoyable, but any dialogue between Juno and her best friend sounded like something from Hannah Montana!! SO forced!
As for Dave’s (real) worries, your fourth worry is such a foregone conclusion for me that I have almost ceased to worry in my bleak black spiraling resignation to it. I will be shocked if proven wrong on election day (or a few months later when they sort through the scandals of the process and the supreme court declares Huckabee or whomever the winner).
My own worries tend towards cancer, and then towards the fact that worrying gives you cancer.
I know that it’s a really old-school worry, but you left out nukes. There’s the whole Pakistan debacle going on right now, a vastly corrupt Russian system, and who knows what the inevitable economic/oil wars between the US, China, and India will look like.
As for your list, I place global warming at the top. One of the reasons I am so concerned is that most Americans don’t seem to understand the complete picture. A few degrees of air temperature or a few feet of raised ocean levels will be cataclysmic in not only geological or geographical arenas, but in regards to global economies, global security, food and water supplies, the spread of new and interesting pandemics etc.
The shit is a bummer. I’m sorry White Bear that you wanted to have a good day.
As for John Edwards, I’m not so sure that he’s all that much more electable than Obama. As for Hillary, someone made a good point on Meet the Press this last Sunday: “I think Clinton will prove to be the unifying candidate for Republicans.”
PS: fuck Juno! That was the worst goddamn movie I saw all year.
This from someone who just saw Hot Rod for the third time.
I wasn’t going to say it, but Hot Rod (which I’m sure most of your never heard of) was truly the best picture of the year.
It’s ridiculous, right? He’s acting like he never even SAW Walk Hard!!!
are you guys sitting across the room from one another on your duelling computers?
The economist(s) in the audience can correct me, but here’s what I think I understand: Consumer spending accounts for a huge part of the U.S. economy, around 70% of GDP, I think. One worry with the housing bubble bursting is that, as people find out their houses aren’t worth what they were at the peak of the bubble, and as some people lose their home to foreclosure, and as people employed in the construction business find themselves with less work, and as consumers generally get spooked by hard-to-understand-but-ominous economic events like plunging stock markets, consumers will cut back on spending. And less consumer spending will further put the hurt on other major parts of the economy — consumer services and manufacturing. So putting money quickly into the hands of those most likely to spend it could soften the blow, keep consumer spending from falling too far, while the business cycle hits bottom and a recovery starts. That’s the theory. (John Maynard Keynes argued that it’s okay for a government to borrow money to “prime the pump” during downward turns in the business cycle to help even out the troughs.)
Giving people more money to spend is a form of fiscal stimulus. Lowering interest rates at the central bank, which is what the Fed did today, is known as monetary stimulus. I read a thing by Paul Krugman the other day about how monetary stimulus mainly works by stimulating the housing market, which is more sensitive to interest rate variations than corporate capital investments are. The problem is, it looks like housing is so overvalued that prices are almost sure to keep falling another 20% or more regardless of interest rates.
We’re actually in different rooms of our house, so it isn’t that pathetic. Right?
I didn’t mean to worry you about being pathetic, Scott. the image i had was actually kind of cute.
Thanks, Dave. It looks like I’ll be using that check to pay my credit card bill from underwater while the Republicans wiretap my computer.
Scotty, I think it’s actually worse.
And how awesome is Cate Blanchett to get nominated in BOTH acting categories?! It shows a certain lack of imagination on the part of the Academy (what, was Meryl Streep not available?), but Cate really is that good.
Another year, another robbery of Norwegian film! I can’t believe that Tatt av kvinnen (Gone with the Woman) wasn’t nominated in the Foreign Film category! Have they even watched it? Two nominations for Russian-language films? And Mongol is just another pumped-up blood-and-guts epic. It’s Dances with Wolves on the Asian steppes. And it’s not really a Kazakh production! Ever since the cutesy pablum of Amelie beat out Elling, I’ve been convinced that the Academy has it in for Norway. This proves it all over again! De er kunner mot oss.
What about the writers’ strike and the Oscars? Anybody worried that the ceremony will suck?
i like how you pulled it back to topic dave. i’m not worried about you keeping control of your comments thread.
all hail the king of norway! lisa, don’t call this fellow too soon. i kind of like having him around. i dig norweigian film but haven’t seen many in the last 10 years or so. King, can you give us your all time top 10?
I think that worry is a useless emotion. If anything, you should worry when it happens and even then what’s the point of worrying, it’s time for action. It a good idea to prepare for possible problems, like having earthquake kits, emergency food supplies, extra cash, wearing your seatbelt, doing regular health check-ups, having a way to get out of the country:) just in case. Other than that, what you think—is, if you worry too much about something, you’ll surely attract it to yourself. To me, if the earth cracks and splits in two halves tomorrow, my only concern will be: which half do we take off from to go someplace else.
Takk deg for din interesse, Bryan. Naturally, Kon-Tiki is at the head of the list, but you know, if they had allowed To mistenkelige personer to be released back then, no one would even remember Thor Heyerdahl’s movie. I may be showing my age, too, but Tancred Ibsen’s earlier one, Tørres Snørtevold, is still the funniest movie I’ve ever seen. That was when writing drove film comedy, not slapstick and silly parody, as they do in the execrable Kill Buljo. Elling, of course, would make the list, too, but give me a little time to flesh it out.
med vennlig hilsen,
Harald V (Kongen av Norge)
Hva skjedde? Den kommentaren burde ha blitt tilskrivet til meg, Ikke denne dumme “Tim Wager,” som vet om Norske filmer.
Det skjedde igjen ! forbannet internettteknologi !
wow
All hail King Timothy of Norge!!!
Det er klar til meg som sikkerheten av din website er kompromittert. Jeg nekter til å kommentere videre, da det kan føre uønsket oppmerksomhet til Huset av Oldenburg.
med mine oppriktige unnskyldninger,
Hans Majestet Harald V (Harry)
unnskyldninger
Hilarious.
I’ve been meaning to share this link, ever since I got it from Sacha. It’s called “The Story of Stuff” and it’s about 20 minutes–so brace yourself–now may be the right time for diversion. But, this woman is so awesome–she walks you through the chain of how we get stuff, what it takes (and costs) to make it all, and what we do with it. The end goal here is to create a more sustainable model. But Dave, when you were talking about how 70% of the economy really is about us consuming–there is a moment where she points out the ridiculous model we’ve been sold on about consumption. http://www.storyofstuff.com/ (I forgot how to link–Dave, can there be some type of online reminder on the front page of the website about that for those of us who forget?)
Oh dang. That was great. I didn’t even do anything except went to the site, cut and pasted the link and put it in there. Is this my Mac proving again how wonderful it is, or is this just improved site management on your part? Wowza.
I laugh to keep from crying. I remember the nights I couldn’t sleep when I was in middle school learning about NUKES–yikes, that was some serious panic! When I think about it now, I see it as the first time I realized that the world was so fragile. Worries like these (and I raise my hand with Dave on all four major concerns + that the FDA gave the OK to cloned meat) can really kill the good ju-ju left from a nice three day weekend.
I just also wanted to add that in general, anxiety is a pretty useful tool most of the time. Feelings are signals, and anxiety can at best help us to get prepared, or to act. I hate it when people just make you feel worse for having worries, as if somehow you should just be able to just erase your reaction because it’s uncomfortable. Navigating your worries takes practice, and everyone deserves to have their worries taken seriously. I think if you invest time into understanding what worries you there are both other ways of looking at a given situation, or possibilities to consider for further action.
i worry about heath ledger’s kid.
Such a loss, especially since it seemed like the best years of his art were still ahead of him. My heart goes out to his family.
Some of you who live so close must be a little rattled.
it’s a couple buildings down from us.
i’m more rattled, though, because he was such a kid. a totally talented kid.
Holy crap. I had no idea what you all were talking about. Just saw the story. Yikes. Wow.
If this post had pictures I would nominate it for just about every best-post category there is. The King of Norway? Fuckin’ A!
Things we learn from the King’s website: Crown Prince Haakon is a hottie, and his wife’s not bad either.
How about Obama’s win in South Carolina…
Did you hear his speech? And yes, it’s a little cheesy, but a helluva lot better than we have heard for years. I heard someone say about him today “finally a candidate we don’t have to settle for”.
Yet, I still think Marleyfan will come through in November…